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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 18th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 18th, 2020.

Stocks could be stuck in a range until there’s more proof reopenings are reviving the economy - (Source)

Coming off a volatile week, analysts expect stocks to continue navigating choppy trading as investors try to build a view of what the economy will look like once states reopen.
Recent data on April employment and consumer spending show the worst declines in post-World War II America. More data in the coming week may reveal how the housing market fared in April, after the economy abruptly fell off a cliff when states shut down their economies in the second half of March.
Investors’ focus will also be on the government stimulus programs to help the economy and markets get through the coronavirus crisis. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appear before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, as it reviews the government’s trillions in spending to help the economy, businesses and individuals. An interview with Powell will also air on “60 Minutes” Sunday night.
Earnings season is winding down but there are a number of reports from major retailers, like Walmart and Target, which should show that the big box stores and discounters are making out better than other retailers as consumers halted many discretionary purchases and moved more shopping online.
The S&P 500 was down nearly 2.3%, in its worst week since March 20. The S&P ended at 2,863. The Dow was off about 2.6% for the week, in its worst week since April 3. It finished the week at 23,598. The Nasdaq also had its worst week since April 3.

Home sweet home

“Housing is going to be important in that you’ll see the chilling effect that Covid has had on housing as well, less on construction than on sales, but on both,” said Diane Swonk, chef economist at Grant Thornton. “That’s going to be an issue. One of the key things we’re watching going forward is the credit market and housing. There’s been a real tightening of credit because of the servicers.”
Swonk said the mortgage servicers are caught in the middle between the banks and people who aren’t making their payments. She said it has been impacting lending. “That’s something we cannot afford. Housing was on a tear before, and it has to pull us out of this,” she said.
Retail sales were down 16.4% in April, and there was an unevenness of performance across the sector. The only positive category was online shopping, up 8.4%. Clothing and accessories, the types of things department stores sell, fell by 78.8% in April. Building materials and garden equipment were down just 3.5%, and that could help Home Depot and Lowe’s which report earnings on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
“Market reactions to the data have been somewhat muted,” said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist at Incapital. He said stocks on Friday were reacting negatively to threats from China that U.S. companies could be targeted if the U.S. does not ease up on Huawei. “The markets right now don’t need another reason to be pessimistic. It seems like both the bond market and stock market are getting a little tired. Both markets are looking for the next catalyst.”

Solvency concerns

The Fed has been given generally high marks for keeping markets liquid, but analysts say they are now more worried about the solvency of companies.
“There’s an interesting kind of threshold here as we’re approaching three months stay at homes or shelter in place. We’re moving from a liquidity challenge, which the Fed helped us address, to a solvency challenge,” said Michael Arone, chief market strategist at State Street Global Advisors. He said unpaid bills start to pile up and default rates rise on credit cards and mortgages.
“The longer this goes on, the harder for folks to make those payments. That’s why states are eager to open even if it has some risks,” Arone said.
The Fed on Friday said the pandemic poses severe risks to businesses of all sizes and millions of households. It said there could be a sharp rise in defaults as households struggle to pay bills.
Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG, said the Federal Reserve has removed worries about liquidity with its facilities and asset purchases. “The reality is the solvency issue which is the bigger focus of the economy and they go hand in hand with the employment issues as things that have to be addressed at some point,” he said. “Look out over the next two months, the solvency issues are based on how the economy reopens and how that medical progress looks.”
Emanuel said the Fed’s corporate bond program has helped companies refinance and clean up their balance sheet so if insolvencies become a big problem it would not be until next year. He said how the economy reopens over the next few months will determine what happens.
“The numbers are out in front of us. We do believe based on what we’re seeing so far, this is the trough of every reading we’re seeing. We do believe things are going to get better. We don’t have reason to believe that’s not the case,” he said.
Emanuel said the reopenings would be graded as a ‘B’ of ‘B+’ based on how they appear to be going so far, including the infection rates. Nearly all states have resumed some level of activity.
But the market will continue to be choppy until there is more medical progress, such as a vaccine. In a sense, the market depends on science more than ever, Emanuel said.
“If all of a sudden, we have a commercially viable vaccine in the first half of next year that’s going to be injected into peoples’ arms prior to, or well before the fall of 2021, then I do think you could make the argument the market is potentially going to hit new all time highs,” Emanuel said.

Range bound

For now though, he sees the market as range bound, and the S&P 500 is currently about in the middle of it.
“We have been very adamant about the definition of this market as being neither bull nor bear. It’s bounded by the 200-day moving average on the top, which is basically 3,000 and the 200-week moving average on the bottom which is 2,667 right now,” said Emanuel.
Arone agrees stocks are going to be choppy, and could react to friction. He said one source of friction is the disagreement over state reopenings, between people who want to see a reopening and those that fear a new outbreak. He said there is also friction between Republicans and Democrats.
“I think until we get clarity that the economy is open and without incident and some of these economic numbers are improving, I think the market is going to remain choppy,” he said.
Emanuel said it makes sense for the market to remain in a sideways range while different issues are resolved.
“On a valuation basis, the market is expensive but it’s not so expensive if you assume this economic period is going to be over in a couple of quarters,” Emanuel said. “If you return to growth in the third and fourth quarter which we don’t necessarily know if that’s going to be robust, but we expect it to be better next year.”
He said he expects a recovery to be more shaped like a bathtub, than like a V or a U, meaning it would be elongated on the bottom before an upturn.
“Part of what actually supports the market is this abject negativity. When everyone is already pessimistic the presumption is they’ve already done a lot of their selling so there isn’t a ton of fuel for the downside there,” said Emanuel.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Retail Sales Telling the Economy’s Story

Retail sales numbers for April were released today, and the basic story was no surprise. Retail sales fell a record 16.4% in April, after declining 8.4% in March, already the largest decline since the government started keeping records in 1992.
The year-over-year decline of more than -21.6% has already topped the -11.5% seen during depths of the financial crisis, as shown in the accompanying chart. But there are hints that the decline has been heavily influenced by store closures rather than shoppers tightening their belts, and that might bode well for the future as the economy gradually starts to open up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“One of the reasons for the major decline in retail sales is simply because many businesses are closed,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “As the economy slowly opens back up, retail sales should bounce back, as pent-up demand is there”
For the past two months, the economy experienced an 89% decline in apparel sales and a 59.2% decline in restaurant sales. These numbers capture the effects of businesses closing. The one area of the retail sales numbers that has done relatively well? Groceries had a record April as consumers stocked up and continued to show some strength in May.
While it will take time for retail sales to get back to normal, several factors are in play that should help support retail activity as the economy opens up. Pent-up demand is increasingly evident. Fiscal stimulus should help preserve incomes. And consumer balance sheets remain relatively healthy, with credit card debt declining the most in decades in March. While weakness will continue, April data may be the low point for retail sales, with good prospects for some strength in the second half of the year. A return to full strength will ultimately depend on the progress doctors and scientists make in limiting the dangers from COVID-19, but even the gradual opening up of the economy may show retail sales numbers starting to stabilize as early as next month.

How Expensive Are Stocks Right Now?

As stocks rallied 30% off the March 23 lows and earnings expectations were cut dramatically, valuations have become increasingly concerning for many investors (including some high-profile hedge fund managers being quoted in the financial press).
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the forward (next 12 months) price-to-earnings (PE) multiple for the S&P 500 Index recently eclipsed 20, which is overvalued based on historical averages and at the highest level since the tech bubble in the late 1990s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While stocks look expensive on this metric—one of the reasons why we expect a correction of perhaps 10% from the April 29 highs—valuations may be getting too much attention.
“Stocks look overvalued based on earnings estimates for the next year, which will probably fall further,” said LPL Financial Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder. “While the return to 2019’s earnings levels may still be two years or more off, the potential for steady improvement and low interest rates suggest they may not be as stretched as they appear.”
So how worried should investors be? Here are three reasons not to worry too much:
  • Earnings will eventually come back. This recession has an end date, and eventually we’ll beat this virus. So while earnings will take time to reach last year’s levels, they should steadily improve starting next quarter. A vaccine could accelerate the timetable.
  • Interest rates and inflation are low. A 20 PE with a sub-1% yield on the 10-year Treasury without a whiff of inflation on the horizon is not unreasonable. And Federal Reserve support isn’t going away anytime soon. In such a low-rate environment, the opportunity cost of waiting an extra year for earnings to come through is not high. Most of a stock’s value is derived from the earnings the company could generate in year two and beyond.
  • Valuations are not good short-term timing tools. There is essentially no statistical relationship between PE ratios and subsequent one-year performance for the stock market. Although we expect more volatility as the path of the economy and corporate profits becomes clearer, we also expect stocks to grow into their valuations as earnings likely recover next year.
Stocks are expensive on traditional PE metrics, and a correction would not surprise us. But given the environment we’re in, valuations are not as worrisome as they may appear. The potential for a steady recovery in earnings over the next couple of years with low interest rates suggests that some of the valuation fears may be exaggerated.

Why Gold Will Continue To Shine

Gold has done quite well so far in 2020, up more than 12% year to date versus the S&P 500 Index which is down about 10%. We started to warm to the yellow metal late last year and continue to think it can serve as a potential hedge in a well-diversified portfolio for suitable investors.
“From COVID-19, to massive monetary stimulus, to historically lower yields, to potentially negative fed funds rates down the road, there are many reasons to think gold could continue its recent strength,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, gold based for years before breaking out last year. This is a strong chart from a technical perspective and eventual new highs over the coming years could be quite likely.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retest Possible, But Bottom Likely In as Jobless Claims Trend Lower

Initial Weekly Jobless Claims of 3.3 million, 6.9 million, 6.6 million, 5.2 million, 4.4 million, 3.8 million, 3.2 million and 3.0 million the past eight weeks, totaling 36.5 million, is astonishing. The good news is the trend is lower and as we pointed out in mid-April four weeks ago a spike peak in Initial Claims and an immediate precipitous retreat has been an effective indication of a bear market low over the years.
Today’s chart, presented above, is from the FRED database hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis compares the recent history of Jobless claims with the Wilshire 5000. (Gaps in the Wilshire index line are market holidays.) Clearly, the March 23 low and the spike high in Claims at the end of that week correlate quite well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sentiment Unexpectedly Improves

The preliminary read on sentiment from the University of Michigan was a surprising bright spot in Friday's weak economic data as the headline reading improved from 71.8 up to 73.7 versus expectations for a decline to 68.0. Even with this increase, sentiment remains near a 10-year low, so it's not as though investors are actually positive, they're just less negative. While the increase in sentiment was a bit of a surprise, it makes sense. April was a month where the economy was essentially shut down, so the impact of that sudden stop on sentiment was intense. However, now that things have started to thaw a little bit, you can't fault people for becoming more optimistic.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While consumers are feeling a bit better about the way things are, they are still extremely uneasy about the future. The chart below breaks down sentiment towards current conditions and expectations about the future. While the current conditions component showed some improvement, the expectations component saw further declines.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One question in the monthly survey that caused us to do a double-take was the question that asks, "During the last few months, have you heard of any favorable or unfavorable changes in business conditions? And what did you hear?" In this month's survey, the index that tracks instances of unfavorable news mentions hit a record high of 141. This series goes all the way back to 1959, and never before has it been near current levels. The prior high for this index was back in the depths of the financial crisis when the index peaked at 133. There hasn't been much good news lately, but even this reading is extreme.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Investors Remain On Guard

In a post earlier today, we noted that individual investors still remain overwhelmingly bearish despite the equity market's rally off the March lows. Another sentiment indicator released by TD Ameritrade supports this view that investors aren't particularly bullish right now. The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index is a proprietary, behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade designed to indicate the sentiment of individual investors’ portfolios. It measures what investors are actually doing, and how they are actually positioned in the markets.
The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index has been in existence since 2010, and in that entire history there have only been five months where the index was weaker than it is now, and that was from October 2011 through February 2012. That was also a period that marked a major low in the equity market and was followed by a nearly uninterrupted three-year rally in the S&P 500.
While the Investor Movement Index is near record lows right now, it has been weak for some time, and that weakness came even as the S&P 500 was climbing to record highs over the last 12-18 months. In other words, while investors are just about as cautious as they have been at any time in the last ten years, this conservatism is nothing new.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $WMT
  • $BABA
  • $NVDA
  • $HD
  • $NAT
  • $TGT
  • $LOW
  • $SE
  • $BIDU
  • $BJ
  • $M
  • $AAP
  • $IQ
  • $TTWO
  • $MDT
  • $OAS
  • $BBY
  • $MCK
  • $SOGO
  • $TJX
  • $INSE
  • $SOHU
  • $FL
  • $DNR
  • $EXPE
  • $ADI
  • $PANW
  • $CBL
  • $DE
  • $KMDA
  • $SPLK
  • $HRL
  • $INTU
  • $EXP
  • $WB
  • $NIU
  • $HZN
  • $TNK
  • $TRVG
  • $IGT
  • $BILI
  • $OMP
  • $URBN
  • $SNPS
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S OPEN!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 5.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 5.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 5.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 5.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 5.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 5.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 5.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 5.21.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 5.22.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 5.22.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Walmart Inc. $125.94

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, May 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.12 per share on revenue of $129.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.88% with revenue increasing by 4.29%. Short interest has decreased by 30.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $117.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,764 contracts of the $130.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $203.68

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 AM ET on Friday, May 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.59 per share on revenue of $15.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.32% with revenue increasing by 9.68%. Short interest has increased by 5.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.1% above its 200 day moving average of $191.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, May 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,712 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $339.63

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Thursday, May 21, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.68 per share on revenue of $2.99 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.77 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.61 to $1.81 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 95.35% with revenue increasing by 34.68%. The stock has drifted higher by 18.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 50.6% above its 200 day moving average of $225.48. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,739 contracts of the $350.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $239.33

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, May 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.27 per share on revenue of $27.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 3.22%. Short interest has increased by 17.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% above its 200 day moving average of $219.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,370 contracts of the $240.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nordic American Tankers Limited $5.03

Nordic American Tankers Limited (NAT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $81.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 525.00% with revenue increasing by 51.65%. Short interest has increased by 350.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 45.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 43.5% above its 200 day moving average of $3.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,413 contracts of the $5.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $120.94

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, May 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.73 per share on revenue of $18.77 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.74 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.55 to $1.75 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.29% with revenue increasing by 6.48%. Short interest has increased by 49.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.3% above its 200 day moving average of $109.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,695 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $113.78

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, May 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.30 per share on revenue of $18.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.56% with revenue increasing by 2.19%. Short interest has decreased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.0% above its 200 day moving average of $108.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,626 contracts of the $120.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sea Limited $61.96

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $920.90 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.22) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.56% with revenue increasing by 161.72%. Short interest has increased by 12.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 53.4% above its 200 day moving average of $40.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,969 contracts of the $64.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Baidu, Inc. $99.86

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.64 per share on revenue of $3.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.34% with revenue decreasing by 12.91%. Short interest has decreased by 5.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 13.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.5% below its 200 day moving average of $111.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,957 contracts of the $110.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $28.43

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, May 21, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share on revenue of $3.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 30.77% with revenue increasing by 3.40%. Short interest has decreased by 6.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 35.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.7% above its 200 day moving average of $24.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,866 contracts of the $35.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 18th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 18th, 2020.

Stocks could be stuck in a range until there’s more proof reopenings are reviving the economy - (Source)

Coming off a volatile week, analysts expect stocks to continue navigating choppy trading as investors try to build a view of what the economy will look like once states reopen.
Recent data on April employment and consumer spending show the worst declines in post-World War II America. More data in the coming week may reveal how the housing market fared in April, after the economy abruptly fell off a cliff when states shut down their economies in the second half of March.
Investors’ focus will also be on the government stimulus programs to help the economy and markets get through the coronavirus crisis. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appear before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, as it reviews the government’s trillions in spending to help the economy, businesses and individuals. An interview with Powell will also air on “60 Minutes” Sunday night.
Earnings season is winding down but there are a number of reports from major retailers, like Walmart and Target, which should show that the big box stores and discounters are making out better than other retailers as consumers halted many discretionary purchases and moved more shopping online.
The S&P 500 was down nearly 2.3%, in its worst week since March 20. The S&P ended at 2,863. The Dow was off about 2.6% for the week, in its worst week since April 3. It finished the week at 23,598. The Nasdaq also had its worst week since April 3.

Home sweet home

“Housing is going to be important in that you’ll see the chilling effect that Covid has had on housing as well, less on construction than on sales, but on both,” said Diane Swonk, chef economist at Grant Thornton. “That’s going to be an issue. One of the key things we’re watching going forward is the credit market and housing. There’s been a real tightening of credit because of the servicers.”
Swonk said the mortgage servicers are caught in the middle between the banks and people who aren’t making their payments. She said it has been impacting lending. “That’s something we cannot afford. Housing was on a tear before, and it has to pull us out of this,” she said.
Retail sales were down 16.4% in April, and there was an unevenness of performance across the sector. The only positive category was online shopping, up 8.4%. Clothing and accessories, the types of things department stores sell, fell by 78.8% in April. Building materials and garden equipment were down just 3.5%, and that could help Home Depot and Lowe’s which report earnings on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
“Market reactions to the data have been somewhat muted,” said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist at Incapital. He said stocks on Friday were reacting negatively to threats from China that U.S. companies could be targeted if the U.S. does not ease up on Huawei. “The markets right now don’t need another reason to be pessimistic. It seems like both the bond market and stock market are getting a little tired. Both markets are looking for the next catalyst.”

Solvency concerns

The Fed has been given generally high marks for keeping markets liquid, but analysts say they are now more worried about the solvency of companies.
“There’s an interesting kind of threshold here as we’re approaching three months stay at homes or shelter in place. We’re moving from a liquidity challenge, which the Fed helped us address, to a solvency challenge,” said Michael Arone, chief market strategist at State Street Global Advisors. He said unpaid bills start to pile up and default rates rise on credit cards and mortgages.
“The longer this goes on, the harder for folks to make those payments. That’s why states are eager to open even if it has some risks,” Arone said.
The Fed on Friday said the pandemic poses severe risks to businesses of all sizes and millions of households. It said there could be a sharp rise in defaults as households struggle to pay bills.
Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG, said the Federal Reserve has removed worries about liquidity with its facilities and asset purchases. “The reality is the solvency issue which is the bigger focus of the economy and they go hand in hand with the employment issues as things that have to be addressed at some point,” he said. “Look out over the next two months, the solvency issues are based on how the economy reopens and how that medical progress looks.”
Emanuel said the Fed’s corporate bond program has helped companies refinance and clean up their balance sheet so if insolvencies become a big problem it would not be until next year. He said how the economy reopens over the next few months will determine what happens.
“The numbers are out in front of us. We do believe based on what we’re seeing so far, this is the trough of every reading we’re seeing. We do believe things are going to get better. We don’t have reason to believe that’s not the case,” he said.
Emanuel said the reopenings would be graded as a ‘B’ of ‘B+’ based on how they appear to be going so far, including the infection rates. Nearly all states have resumed some level of activity.
But the market will continue to be choppy until there is more medical progress, such as a vaccine. In a sense, the market depends on science more than ever, Emanuel said.
“If all of a sudden, we have a commercially viable vaccine in the first half of next year that’s going to be injected into peoples’ arms prior to, or well before the fall of 2021, then I do think you could make the argument the market is potentially going to hit new all time highs,” Emanuel said.

Range bound

For now though, he sees the market as range bound, and the S&P 500 is currently about in the middle of it.
“We have been very adamant about the definition of this market as being neither bull nor bear. It’s bounded by the 200-day moving average on the top, which is basically 3,000 and the 200-week moving average on the bottom which is 2,667 right now,” said Emanuel.
Arone agrees stocks are going to be choppy, and could react to friction. He said one source of friction is the disagreement over state reopenings, between people who want to see a reopening and those that fear a new outbreak. He said there is also friction between Republicans and Democrats.
“I think until we get clarity that the economy is open and without incident and some of these economic numbers are improving, I think the market is going to remain choppy,” he said.
Emanuel said it makes sense for the market to remain in a sideways range while different issues are resolved.
“On a valuation basis, the market is expensive but it’s not so expensive if you assume this economic period is going to be over in a couple of quarters,” Emanuel said. “If you return to growth in the third and fourth quarter which we don’t necessarily know if that’s going to be robust, but we expect it to be better next year.”
He said he expects a recovery to be more shaped like a bathtub, than like a V or a U, meaning it would be elongated on the bottom before an upturn.
“Part of what actually supports the market is this abject negativity. When everyone is already pessimistic the presumption is they’ve already done a lot of their selling so there isn’t a ton of fuel for the downside there,” said Emanuel.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Retail Sales Telling the Economy’s Story

Retail sales numbers for April were released today, and the basic story was no surprise. Retail sales fell a record 16.4% in April, after declining 8.4% in March, already the largest decline since the government started keeping records in 1992.
The year-over-year decline of more than -21.6% has already topped the -11.5% seen during depths of the financial crisis, as shown in the accompanying chart. But there are hints that the decline has been heavily influenced by store closures rather than shoppers tightening their belts, and that might bode well for the future as the economy gradually starts to open up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“One of the reasons for the major decline in retail sales is simply because many businesses are closed,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “As the economy slowly opens back up, retail sales should bounce back, as pent-up demand is there”
For the past two months, the economy experienced an 89% decline in apparel sales and a 59.2% decline in restaurant sales. These numbers capture the effects of businesses closing. The one area of the retail sales numbers that has done relatively well? Groceries had a record April as consumers stocked up and continued to show some strength in May.
While it will take time for retail sales to get back to normal, several factors are in play that should help support retail activity as the economy opens up. Pent-up demand is increasingly evident. Fiscal stimulus should help preserve incomes. And consumer balance sheets remain relatively healthy, with credit card debt declining the most in decades in March. While weakness will continue, April data may be the low point for retail sales, with good prospects for some strength in the second half of the year. A return to full strength will ultimately depend on the progress doctors and scientists make in limiting the dangers from COVID-19, but even the gradual opening up of the economy may show retail sales numbers starting to stabilize as early as next month.

How Expensive Are Stocks Right Now?

As stocks rallied 30% off the March 23 lows and earnings expectations were cut dramatically, valuations have become increasingly concerning for many investors (including some high-profile hedge fund managers being quoted in the financial press).
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the forward (next 12 months) price-to-earnings (PE) multiple for the S&P 500 Index recently eclipsed 20, which is overvalued based on historical averages and at the highest level since the tech bubble in the late 1990s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While stocks look expensive on this metric—one of the reasons why we expect a correction of perhaps 10% from the April 29 highs—valuations may be getting too much attention.
“Stocks look overvalued based on earnings estimates for the next year, which will probably fall further,” said LPL Financial Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder. “While the return to 2019’s earnings levels may still be two years or more off, the potential for steady improvement and low interest rates suggest they may not be as stretched as they appear.”
So how worried should investors be? Here are three reasons not to worry too much:
  • Earnings will eventually come back. This recession has an end date, and eventually we’ll beat this virus. So while earnings will take time to reach last year’s levels, they should steadily improve starting next quarter. A vaccine could accelerate the timetable.
  • Interest rates and inflation are low. A 20 PE with a sub-1% yield on the 10-year Treasury without a whiff of inflation on the horizon is not unreasonable. And Federal Reserve support isn’t going away anytime soon. In such a low-rate environment, the opportunity cost of waiting an extra year for earnings to come through is not high. Most of a stock’s value is derived from the earnings the company could generate in year two and beyond.
  • Valuations are not good short-term timing tools. There is essentially no statistical relationship between PE ratios and subsequent one-year performance for the stock market. Although we expect more volatility as the path of the economy and corporate profits becomes clearer, we also expect stocks to grow into their valuations as earnings likely recover next year.
Stocks are expensive on traditional PE metrics, and a correction would not surprise us. But given the environment we’re in, valuations are not as worrisome as they may appear. The potential for a steady recovery in earnings over the next couple of years with low interest rates suggests that some of the valuation fears may be exaggerated.

Why Gold Will Continue To Shine

Gold has done quite well so far in 2020, up more than 12% year to date versus the S&P 500 Index which is down about 10%. We started to warm to the yellow metal late last year and continue to think it can serve as a potential hedge in a well-diversified portfolio for suitable investors.
“From COVID-19, to massive monetary stimulus, to historically lower yields, to potentially negative fed funds rates down the road, there are many reasons to think gold could continue its recent strength,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, gold based for years before breaking out last year. This is a strong chart from a technical perspective and eventual new highs over the coming years could be quite likely.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retest Possible, But Bottom Likely In as Jobless Claims Trend Lower

Initial Weekly Jobless Claims of 3.3 million, 6.9 million, 6.6 million, 5.2 million, 4.4 million, 3.8 million, 3.2 million and 3.0 million the past eight weeks, totaling 36.5 million, is astonishing. The good news is the trend is lower and as we pointed out in mid-April four weeks ago a spike peak in Initial Claims and an immediate precipitous retreat has been an effective indication of a bear market low over the years.
Today’s chart, presented above, is from the FRED database hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis compares the recent history of Jobless claims with the Wilshire 5000. (Gaps in the Wilshire index line are market holidays.) Clearly, the March 23 low and the spike high in Claims at the end of that week correlate quite well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sentiment Unexpectedly Improves

The preliminary read on sentiment from the University of Michigan was a surprising bright spot in Friday's weak economic data as the headline reading improved from 71.8 up to 73.7 versus expectations for a decline to 68.0. Even with this increase, sentiment remains near a 10-year low, so it's not as though investors are actually positive, they're just less negative. While the increase in sentiment was a bit of a surprise, it makes sense. April was a month where the economy was essentially shut down, so the impact of that sudden stop on sentiment was intense. However, now that things have started to thaw a little bit, you can't fault people for becoming more optimistic.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While consumers are feeling a bit better about the way things are, they are still extremely uneasy about the future. The chart below breaks down sentiment towards current conditions and expectations about the future. While the current conditions component showed some improvement, the expectations component saw further declines.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One question in the monthly survey that caused us to do a double-take was the question that asks, "During the last few months, have you heard of any favorable or unfavorable changes in business conditions? And what did you hear?" In this month's survey, the index that tracks instances of unfavorable news mentions hit a record high of 141. This series goes all the way back to 1959, and never before has it been near current levels. The prior high for this index was back in the depths of the financial crisis when the index peaked at 133. There hasn't been much good news lately, but even this reading is extreme.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Investors Remain On Guard

In a post earlier today, we noted that individual investors still remain overwhelmingly bearish despite the equity market's rally off the March lows. Another sentiment indicator released by TD Ameritrade supports this view that investors aren't particularly bullish right now. The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index is a proprietary, behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade designed to indicate the sentiment of individual investors’ portfolios. It measures what investors are actually doing, and how they are actually positioned in the markets.
The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index has been in existence since 2010, and in that entire history there have only been five months where the index was weaker than it is now, and that was from October 2011 through February 2012. That was also a period that marked a major low in the equity market and was followed by a nearly uninterrupted three-year rally in the S&P 500.
While the Investor Movement Index is near record lows right now, it has been weak for some time, and that weakness came even as the S&P 500 was climbing to record highs over the last 12-18 months. In other words, while investors are just about as cautious as they have been at any time in the last ten years, this conservatism is nothing new.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $WMT
  • $BABA
  • $NVDA
  • $HD
  • $NAT
  • $TGT
  • $LOW
  • $SE
  • $BIDU
  • $BJ
  • $M
  • $AAP
  • $IQ
  • $TTWO
  • $MDT
  • $OAS
  • $BBY
  • $MCK
  • $SOGO
  • $TJX
  • $INSE
  • $SOHU
  • $FL
  • $DNR
  • $EXPE
  • $ADI
  • $PANW
  • $CBL
  • $DE
  • $KMDA
  • $SPLK
  • $HRL
  • $INTU
  • $EXP
  • $WB
  • $NIU
  • $HZN
  • $TNK
  • $TRVG
  • $IGT
  • $BILI
  • $OMP
  • $URBN
  • $SNPS
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S OPEN!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 5.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 5.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 5.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 5.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 5.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 5.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 5.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 5.21.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 5.22.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 5.22.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Walmart Inc. $125.94

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, May 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.12 per share on revenue of $129.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.88% with revenue increasing by 4.29%. Short interest has decreased by 30.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $117.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,764 contracts of the $130.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $203.68

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 AM ET on Friday, May 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.59 per share on revenue of $15.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.32% with revenue increasing by 9.68%. Short interest has increased by 5.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.1% above its 200 day moving average of $191.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, May 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,712 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $339.63

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Thursday, May 21, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.68 per share on revenue of $2.99 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.77 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.61 to $1.81 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 95.35% with revenue increasing by 34.68%. The stock has drifted higher by 18.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 50.6% above its 200 day moving average of $225.48. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,739 contracts of the $350.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $239.33

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, May 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.27 per share on revenue of $27.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 3.22%. Short interest has increased by 17.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% above its 200 day moving average of $219.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,370 contracts of the $240.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nordic American Tankers Limited $5.03

Nordic American Tankers Limited (NAT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $81.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 525.00% with revenue increasing by 51.65%. Short interest has increased by 350.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 45.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 43.5% above its 200 day moving average of $3.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,413 contracts of the $5.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $120.94

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, May 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.73 per share on revenue of $18.77 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.74 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.55 to $1.75 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.29% with revenue increasing by 6.48%. Short interest has increased by 49.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.3% above its 200 day moving average of $109.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,695 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $113.78

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, May 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.30 per share on revenue of $18.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.56% with revenue increasing by 2.19%. Short interest has decreased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.0% above its 200 day moving average of $108.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,626 contracts of the $120.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sea Limited $61.96

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $920.90 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.22) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.56% with revenue increasing by 161.72%. Short interest has increased by 12.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 53.4% above its 200 day moving average of $40.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,969 contracts of the $64.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Baidu, Inc. $99.86

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.64 per share on revenue of $3.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.34% with revenue decreasing by 12.91%. Short interest has decreased by 5.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 13.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.5% below its 200 day moving average of $111.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,957 contracts of the $110.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $28.43

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, May 21, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share on revenue of $3.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 30.77% with revenue increasing by 3.40%. Short interest has decreased by 6.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 35.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.7% above its 200 day moving average of $24.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,866 contracts of the $35.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 18th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 18th, 2020.

Stocks could be stuck in a range until there’s more proof reopenings are reviving the economy - (Source)

Coming off a volatile week, analysts expect stocks to continue navigating choppy trading as investors try to build a view of what the economy will look like once states reopen.
Recent data on April employment and consumer spending show the worst declines in post-World War II America. More data in the coming week may reveal how the housing market fared in April, after the economy abruptly fell off a cliff when states shut down their economies in the second half of March.
Investors’ focus will also be on the government stimulus programs to help the economy and markets get through the coronavirus crisis. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appear before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, as it reviews the government’s trillions in spending to help the economy, businesses and individuals. An interview with Powell will also air on “60 Minutes” Sunday night.
Earnings season is winding down but there are a number of reports from major retailers, like Walmart and Target, which should show that the big box stores and discounters are making out better than other retailers as consumers halted many discretionary purchases and moved more shopping online.
The S&P 500 was down nearly 2.3%, in its worst week since March 20. The S&P ended at 2,863. The Dow was off about 2.6% for the week, in its worst week since April 3. It finished the week at 23,598. The Nasdaq also had its worst week since April 3.

Home sweet home

“Housing is going to be important in that you’ll see the chilling effect that Covid has had on housing as well, less on construction than on sales, but on both,” said Diane Swonk, chef economist at Grant Thornton. “That’s going to be an issue. One of the key things we’re watching going forward is the credit market and housing. There’s been a real tightening of credit because of the servicers.”
Swonk said the mortgage servicers are caught in the middle between the banks and people who aren’t making their payments. She said it has been impacting lending. “That’s something we cannot afford. Housing was on a tear before, and it has to pull us out of this,” she said.
Retail sales were down 16.4% in April, and there was an unevenness of performance across the sector. The only positive category was online shopping, up 8.4%. Clothing and accessories, the types of things department stores sell, fell by 78.8% in April. Building materials and garden equipment were down just 3.5%, and that could help Home Depot and Lowe’s which report earnings on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
“Market reactions to the data have been somewhat muted,” said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist at Incapital. He said stocks on Friday were reacting negatively to threats from China that U.S. companies could be targeted if the U.S. does not ease up on Huawei. “The markets right now don’t need another reason to be pessimistic. It seems like both the bond market and stock market are getting a little tired. Both markets are looking for the next catalyst.”

Solvency concerns

The Fed has been given generally high marks for keeping markets liquid, but analysts say they are now more worried about the solvency of companies.
“There’s an interesting kind of threshold here as we’re approaching three months stay at homes or shelter in place. We’re moving from a liquidity challenge, which the Fed helped us address, to a solvency challenge,” said Michael Arone, chief market strategist at State Street Global Advisors. He said unpaid bills start to pile up and default rates rise on credit cards and mortgages.
“The longer this goes on, the harder for folks to make those payments. That’s why states are eager to open even if it has some risks,” Arone said.
The Fed on Friday said the pandemic poses severe risks to businesses of all sizes and millions of households. It said there could be a sharp rise in defaults as households struggle to pay bills.
Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG, said the Federal Reserve has removed worries about liquidity with its facilities and asset purchases. “The reality is the solvency issue which is the bigger focus of the economy and they go hand in hand with the employment issues as things that have to be addressed at some point,” he said. “Look out over the next two months, the solvency issues are based on how the economy reopens and how that medical progress looks.”
Emanuel said the Fed’s corporate bond program has helped companies refinance and clean up their balance sheet so if insolvencies become a big problem it would not be until next year. He said how the economy reopens over the next few months will determine what happens.
“The numbers are out in front of us. We do believe based on what we’re seeing so far, this is the trough of every reading we’re seeing. We do believe things are going to get better. We don’t have reason to believe that’s not the case,” he said.
Emanuel said the reopenings would be graded as a ‘B’ of ‘B+’ based on how they appear to be going so far, including the infection rates. Nearly all states have resumed some level of activity.
But the market will continue to be choppy until there is more medical progress, such as a vaccine. In a sense, the market depends on science more than ever, Emanuel said.
“If all of a sudden, we have a commercially viable vaccine in the first half of next year that’s going to be injected into peoples’ arms prior to, or well before the fall of 2021, then I do think you could make the argument the market is potentially going to hit new all time highs,” Emanuel said.

Range bound

For now though, he sees the market as range bound, and the S&P 500 is currently about in the middle of it.
“We have been very adamant about the definition of this market as being neither bull nor bear. It’s bounded by the 200-day moving average on the top, which is basically 3,000 and the 200-week moving average on the bottom which is 2,667 right now,” said Emanuel.
Arone agrees stocks are going to be choppy, and could react to friction. He said one source of friction is the disagreement over state reopenings, between people who want to see a reopening and those that fear a new outbreak. He said there is also friction between Republicans and Democrats.
“I think until we get clarity that the economy is open and without incident and some of these economic numbers are improving, I think the market is going to remain choppy,” he said.
Emanuel said it makes sense for the market to remain in a sideways range while different issues are resolved.
“On a valuation basis, the market is expensive but it’s not so expensive if you assume this economic period is going to be over in a couple of quarters,” Emanuel said. “If you return to growth in the third and fourth quarter which we don’t necessarily know if that’s going to be robust, but we expect it to be better next year.”
He said he expects a recovery to be more shaped like a bathtub, than like a V or a U, meaning it would be elongated on the bottom before an upturn.
“Part of what actually supports the market is this abject negativity. When everyone is already pessimistic the presumption is they’ve already done a lot of their selling so there isn’t a ton of fuel for the downside there,” said Emanuel.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Retail Sales Telling the Economy’s Story

Retail sales numbers for April were released today, and the basic story was no surprise. Retail sales fell a record 16.4% in April, after declining 8.4% in March, already the largest decline since the government started keeping records in 1992.
The year-over-year decline of more than -21.6% has already topped the -11.5% seen during depths of the financial crisis, as shown in the accompanying chart. But there are hints that the decline has been heavily influenced by store closures rather than shoppers tightening their belts, and that might bode well for the future as the economy gradually starts to open up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“One of the reasons for the major decline in retail sales is simply because many businesses are closed,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “As the economy slowly opens back up, retail sales should bounce back, as pent-up demand is there”
For the past two months, the economy experienced an 89% decline in apparel sales and a 59.2% decline in restaurant sales. These numbers capture the effects of businesses closing. The one area of the retail sales numbers that has done relatively well? Groceries had a record April as consumers stocked up and continued to show some strength in May.
While it will take time for retail sales to get back to normal, several factors are in play that should help support retail activity as the economy opens up. Pent-up demand is increasingly evident. Fiscal stimulus should help preserve incomes. And consumer balance sheets remain relatively healthy, with credit card debt declining the most in decades in March. While weakness will continue, April data may be the low point for retail sales, with good prospects for some strength in the second half of the year. A return to full strength will ultimately depend on the progress doctors and scientists make in limiting the dangers from COVID-19, but even the gradual opening up of the economy may show retail sales numbers starting to stabilize as early as next month.

How Expensive Are Stocks Right Now?

As stocks rallied 30% off the March 23 lows and earnings expectations were cut dramatically, valuations have become increasingly concerning for many investors (including some high-profile hedge fund managers being quoted in the financial press).
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the forward (next 12 months) price-to-earnings (PE) multiple for the S&P 500 Index recently eclipsed 20, which is overvalued based on historical averages and at the highest level since the tech bubble in the late 1990s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While stocks look expensive on this metric—one of the reasons why we expect a correction of perhaps 10% from the April 29 highs—valuations may be getting too much attention.
“Stocks look overvalued based on earnings estimates for the next year, which will probably fall further,” said LPL Financial Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder. “While the return to 2019’s earnings levels may still be two years or more off, the potential for steady improvement and low interest rates suggest they may not be as stretched as they appear.”
So how worried should investors be? Here are three reasons not to worry too much:
  • Earnings will eventually come back. This recession has an end date, and eventually we’ll beat this virus. So while earnings will take time to reach last year’s levels, they should steadily improve starting next quarter. A vaccine could accelerate the timetable.
  • Interest rates and inflation are low. A 20 PE with a sub-1% yield on the 10-year Treasury without a whiff of inflation on the horizon is not unreasonable. And Federal Reserve support isn’t going away anytime soon. In such a low-rate environment, the opportunity cost of waiting an extra year for earnings to come through is not high. Most of a stock’s value is derived from the earnings the company could generate in year two and beyond.
  • Valuations are not good short-term timing tools. There is essentially no statistical relationship between PE ratios and subsequent one-year performance for the stock market. Although we expect more volatility as the path of the economy and corporate profits becomes clearer, we also expect stocks to grow into their valuations as earnings likely recover next year.
Stocks are expensive on traditional PE metrics, and a correction would not surprise us. But given the environment we’re in, valuations are not as worrisome as they may appear. The potential for a steady recovery in earnings over the next couple of years with low interest rates suggests that some of the valuation fears may be exaggerated.

Why Gold Will Continue To Shine

Gold has done quite well so far in 2020, up more than 12% year to date versus the S&P 500 Index which is down about 10%. We started to warm to the yellow metal late last year and continue to think it can serve as a potential hedge in a well-diversified portfolio for suitable investors.
“From COVID-19, to massive monetary stimulus, to historically lower yields, to potentially negative fed funds rates down the road, there are many reasons to think gold could continue its recent strength,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, gold based for years before breaking out last year. This is a strong chart from a technical perspective and eventual new highs over the coming years could be quite likely.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retest Possible, But Bottom Likely In as Jobless Claims Trend Lower

Initial Weekly Jobless Claims of 3.3 million, 6.9 million, 6.6 million, 5.2 million, 4.4 million, 3.8 million, 3.2 million and 3.0 million the past eight weeks, totaling 36.5 million, is astonishing. The good news is the trend is lower and as we pointed out in mid-April four weeks ago a spike peak in Initial Claims and an immediate precipitous retreat has been an effective indication of a bear market low over the years.
Today’s chart, presented above, is from the FRED database hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis compares the recent history of Jobless claims with the Wilshire 5000. (Gaps in the Wilshire index line are market holidays.) Clearly, the March 23 low and the spike high in Claims at the end of that week correlate quite well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sentiment Unexpectedly Improves

The preliminary read on sentiment from the University of Michigan was a surprising bright spot in Friday's weak economic data as the headline reading improved from 71.8 up to 73.7 versus expectations for a decline to 68.0. Even with this increase, sentiment remains near a 10-year low, so it's not as though investors are actually positive, they're just less negative. While the increase in sentiment was a bit of a surprise, it makes sense. April was a month where the economy was essentially shut down, so the impact of that sudden stop on sentiment was intense. However, now that things have started to thaw a little bit, you can't fault people for becoming more optimistic.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While consumers are feeling a bit better about the way things are, they are still extremely uneasy about the future. The chart below breaks down sentiment towards current conditions and expectations about the future. While the current conditions component showed some improvement, the expectations component saw further declines.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One question in the monthly survey that caused us to do a double-take was the question that asks, "During the last few months, have you heard of any favorable or unfavorable changes in business conditions? And what did you hear?" In this month's survey, the index that tracks instances of unfavorable news mentions hit a record high of 141. This series goes all the way back to 1959, and never before has it been near current levels. The prior high for this index was back in the depths of the financial crisis when the index peaked at 133. There hasn't been much good news lately, but even this reading is extreme.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Investors Remain On Guard

In a post earlier today, we noted that individual investors still remain overwhelmingly bearish despite the equity market's rally off the March lows. Another sentiment indicator released by TD Ameritrade supports this view that investors aren't particularly bullish right now. The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index is a proprietary, behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade designed to indicate the sentiment of individual investors’ portfolios. It measures what investors are actually doing, and how they are actually positioned in the markets.
The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index has been in existence since 2010, and in that entire history there have only been five months where the index was weaker than it is now, and that was from October 2011 through February 2012. That was also a period that marked a major low in the equity market and was followed by a nearly uninterrupted three-year rally in the S&P 500.
While the Investor Movement Index is near record lows right now, it has been weak for some time, and that weakness came even as the S&P 500 was climbing to record highs over the last 12-18 months. In other words, while investors are just about as cautious as they have been at any time in the last ten years, this conservatism is nothing new.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending May 15th, 2020

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5.17.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $WMT
  • $BABA
  • $NVDA
  • $HD
  • $NAT
  • $TGT
  • $LOW
  • $SE
  • $BIDU
  • $BJ
  • $M
  • $AAP
  • $IQ
  • $TTWO
  • $MDT
  • $OAS
  • $BBY
  • $MCK
  • $SOGO
  • $TJX
  • $INSE
  • $SOHU
  • $FL
  • $DNR
  • $EXPE
  • $ADI
  • $PANW
  • $CBL
  • $DE
  • $KMDA
  • $SPLK
  • $HRL
  • $INTU
  • $EXP
  • $WB
  • $NIU
  • $HZN
  • $TNK
  • $TRVG
  • $IGT
  • $BILI
  • $OMP
  • $URBN
  • $SNPS
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S OPEN!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 5.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 5.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 5.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 5.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 5.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 5.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 5.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 5.21.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 5.22.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 5.22.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Walmart Inc. $125.94

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, May 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.12 per share on revenue of $129.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.88% with revenue increasing by 4.29%. Short interest has decreased by 30.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $117.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,764 contracts of the $130.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $203.68

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 AM ET on Friday, May 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.59 per share on revenue of $15.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.32% with revenue increasing by 9.68%. Short interest has increased by 5.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.1% above its 200 day moving average of $191.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, May 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,712 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $339.63

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Thursday, May 21, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.68 per share on revenue of $2.99 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.77 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.61 to $1.81 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 95.35% with revenue increasing by 34.68%. The stock has drifted higher by 18.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 50.6% above its 200 day moving average of $225.48. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,739 contracts of the $350.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $239.33

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, May 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.27 per share on revenue of $27.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 3.22%. Short interest has increased by 17.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% above its 200 day moving average of $219.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,370 contracts of the $240.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nordic American Tankers Limited $5.03

Nordic American Tankers Limited (NAT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $81.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 525.00% with revenue increasing by 51.65%. Short interest has increased by 350.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 45.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 43.5% above its 200 day moving average of $3.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,413 contracts of the $5.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $120.94

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, May 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.73 per share on revenue of $18.77 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.74 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.55 to $1.75 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.29% with revenue increasing by 6.48%. Short interest has increased by 49.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.3% above its 200 day moving average of $109.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,695 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $113.78

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, May 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.30 per share on revenue of $18.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.56% with revenue increasing by 2.19%. Short interest has decreased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.0% above its 200 day moving average of $108.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,626 contracts of the $120.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sea Limited $61.96

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $920.90 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.22) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.56% with revenue increasing by 161.72%. Short interest has increased by 12.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 53.4% above its 200 day moving average of $40.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,969 contracts of the $64.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Baidu, Inc. $99.86

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.64 per share on revenue of $3.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.34% with revenue decreasing by 12.91%. Short interest has decreased by 5.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 13.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.5% below its 200 day moving average of $111.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,957 contracts of the $110.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $28.43

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, May 21, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share on revenue of $3.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 30.77% with revenue increasing by 3.40%. Short interest has decreased by 6.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 35.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.7% above its 200 day moving average of $24.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,866 contracts of the $35.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 18th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 18th, 2020.

Stocks could be stuck in a range until there’s more proof reopenings are reviving the economy - (Source)

Coming off a volatile week, analysts expect stocks to continue navigating choppy trading as investors try to build a view of what the economy will look like once states reopen.
Recent data on April employment and consumer spending show the worst declines in post-World War II America. More data in the coming week may reveal how the housing market fared in April, after the economy abruptly fell off a cliff when states shut down their economies in the second half of March.
Investors’ focus will also be on the government stimulus programs to help the economy and markets get through the coronavirus crisis. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appear before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, as it reviews the government’s trillions in spending to help the economy, businesses and individuals. An interview with Powell will also air on “60 Minutes” Sunday night.
Earnings season is winding down but there are a number of reports from major retailers, like Walmart and Target, which should show that the big box stores and discounters are making out better than other retailers as consumers halted many discretionary purchases and moved more shopping online.
The S&P 500 was down nearly 2.3%, in its worst week since March 20. The S&P ended at 2,863. The Dow was off about 2.6% for the week, in its worst week since April 3. It finished the week at 23,598. The Nasdaq also had its worst week since April 3.

Home sweet home

“Housing is going to be important in that you’ll see the chilling effect that Covid has had on housing as well, less on construction than on sales, but on both,” said Diane Swonk, chef economist at Grant Thornton. “That’s going to be an issue. One of the key things we’re watching going forward is the credit market and housing. There’s been a real tightening of credit because of the servicers.”
Swonk said the mortgage servicers are caught in the middle between the banks and people who aren’t making their payments. She said it has been impacting lending. “That’s something we cannot afford. Housing was on a tear before, and it has to pull us out of this,” she said.
Retail sales were down 16.4% in April, and there was an unevenness of performance across the sector. The only positive category was online shopping, up 8.4%. Clothing and accessories, the types of things department stores sell, fell by 78.8% in April. Building materials and garden equipment were down just 3.5%, and that could help Home Depot and Lowe’s which report earnings on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
“Market reactions to the data have been somewhat muted,” said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist at Incapital. He said stocks on Friday were reacting negatively to threats from China that U.S. companies could be targeted if the U.S. does not ease up on Huawei. “The markets right now don’t need another reason to be pessimistic. It seems like both the bond market and stock market are getting a little tired. Both markets are looking for the next catalyst.”

Solvency concerns

The Fed has been given generally high marks for keeping markets liquid, but analysts say they are now more worried about the solvency of companies.
“There’s an interesting kind of threshold here as we’re approaching three months stay at homes or shelter in place. We’re moving from a liquidity challenge, which the Fed helped us address, to a solvency challenge,” said Michael Arone, chief market strategist at State Street Global Advisors. He said unpaid bills start to pile up and default rates rise on credit cards and mortgages.
“The longer this goes on, the harder for folks to make those payments. That’s why states are eager to open even if it has some risks,” Arone said.
The Fed on Friday said the pandemic poses severe risks to businesses of all sizes and millions of households. It said there could be a sharp rise in defaults as households struggle to pay bills.
Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG, said the Federal Reserve has removed worries about liquidity with its facilities and asset purchases. “The reality is the solvency issue which is the bigger focus of the economy and they go hand in hand with the employment issues as things that have to be addressed at some point,” he said. “Look out over the next two months, the solvency issues are based on how the economy reopens and how that medical progress looks.”
Emanuel said the Fed’s corporate bond program has helped companies refinance and clean up their balance sheet so if insolvencies become a big problem it would not be until next year. He said how the economy reopens over the next few months will determine what happens.
“The numbers are out in front of us. We do believe based on what we’re seeing so far, this is the trough of every reading we’re seeing. We do believe things are going to get better. We don’t have reason to believe that’s not the case,” he said.
Emanuel said the reopenings would be graded as a ‘B’ of ‘B+’ based on how they appear to be going so far, including the infection rates. Nearly all states have resumed some level of activity.
But the market will continue to be choppy until there is more medical progress, such as a vaccine. In a sense, the market depends on science more than ever, Emanuel said.
“If all of a sudden, we have a commercially viable vaccine in the first half of next year that’s going to be injected into peoples’ arms prior to, or well before the fall of 2021, then I do think you could make the argument the market is potentially going to hit new all time highs,” Emanuel said.

Range bound

For now though, he sees the market as range bound, and the S&P 500 is currently about in the middle of it.
“We have been very adamant about the definition of this market as being neither bull nor bear. It’s bounded by the 200-day moving average on the top, which is basically 3,000 and the 200-week moving average on the bottom which is 2,667 right now,” said Emanuel.
Arone agrees stocks are going to be choppy, and could react to friction. He said one source of friction is the disagreement over state reopenings, between people who want to see a reopening and those that fear a new outbreak. He said there is also friction between Republicans and Democrats.
“I think until we get clarity that the economy is open and without incident and some of these economic numbers are improving, I think the market is going to remain choppy,” he said.
Emanuel said it makes sense for the market to remain in a sideways range while different issues are resolved.
“On a valuation basis, the market is expensive but it’s not so expensive if you assume this economic period is going to be over in a couple of quarters,” Emanuel said. “If you return to growth in the third and fourth quarter which we don’t necessarily know if that’s going to be robust, but we expect it to be better next year.”
He said he expects a recovery to be more shaped like a bathtub, than like a V or a U, meaning it would be elongated on the bottom before an upturn.
“Part of what actually supports the market is this abject negativity. When everyone is already pessimistic the presumption is they’ve already done a lot of their selling so there isn’t a ton of fuel for the downside there,” said Emanuel.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Retail Sales Telling the Economy’s Story

Retail sales numbers for April were released today, and the basic story was no surprise. Retail sales fell a record 16.4% in April, after declining 8.4% in March, already the largest decline since the government started keeping records in 1992.
The year-over-year decline of more than -21.6% has already topped the -11.5% seen during depths of the financial crisis, as shown in the accompanying chart. But there are hints that the decline has been heavily influenced by store closures rather than shoppers tightening their belts, and that might bode well for the future as the economy gradually starts to open up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“One of the reasons for the major decline in retail sales is simply because many businesses are closed,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “As the economy slowly opens back up, retail sales should bounce back, as pent-up demand is there”
For the past two months, the economy experienced an 89% decline in apparel sales and a 59.2% decline in restaurant sales. These numbers capture the effects of businesses closing. The one area of the retail sales numbers that has done relatively well? Groceries had a record April as consumers stocked up and continued to show some strength in May.
While it will take time for retail sales to get back to normal, several factors are in play that should help support retail activity as the economy opens up. Pent-up demand is increasingly evident. Fiscal stimulus should help preserve incomes. And consumer balance sheets remain relatively healthy, with credit card debt declining the most in decades in March. While weakness will continue, April data may be the low point for retail sales, with good prospects for some strength in the second half of the year. A return to full strength will ultimately depend on the progress doctors and scientists make in limiting the dangers from COVID-19, but even the gradual opening up of the economy may show retail sales numbers starting to stabilize as early as next month.

How Expensive Are Stocks Right Now?

As stocks rallied 30% off the March 23 lows and earnings expectations were cut dramatically, valuations have become increasingly concerning for many investors (including some high-profile hedge fund managers being quoted in the financial press).
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the forward (next 12 months) price-to-earnings (PE) multiple for the S&P 500 Index recently eclipsed 20, which is overvalued based on historical averages and at the highest level since the tech bubble in the late 1990s.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While stocks look expensive on this metric—one of the reasons why we expect a correction of perhaps 10% from the April 29 highs—valuations may be getting too much attention.
“Stocks look overvalued based on earnings estimates for the next year, which will probably fall further,” said LPL Financial Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder. “While the return to 2019’s earnings levels may still be two years or more off, the potential for steady improvement and low interest rates suggest they may not be as stretched as they appear.”
So how worried should investors be? Here are three reasons not to worry too much:
  • Earnings will eventually come back. This recession has an end date, and eventually we’ll beat this virus. So while earnings will take time to reach last year’s levels, they should steadily improve starting next quarter. A vaccine could accelerate the timetable.
  • Interest rates and inflation are low. A 20 PE with a sub-1% yield on the 10-year Treasury without a whiff of inflation on the horizon is not unreasonable. And Federal Reserve support isn’t going away anytime soon. In such a low-rate environment, the opportunity cost of waiting an extra year for earnings to come through is not high. Most of a stock’s value is derived from the earnings the company could generate in year two and beyond.
  • Valuations are not good short-term timing tools. There is essentially no statistical relationship between PE ratios and subsequent one-year performance for the stock market. Although we expect more volatility as the path of the economy and corporate profits becomes clearer, we also expect stocks to grow into their valuations as earnings likely recover next year.
Stocks are expensive on traditional PE metrics, and a correction would not surprise us. But given the environment we’re in, valuations are not as worrisome as they may appear. The potential for a steady recovery in earnings over the next couple of years with low interest rates suggests that some of the valuation fears may be exaggerated.

Why Gold Will Continue To Shine

Gold has done quite well so far in 2020, up more than 12% year to date versus the S&P 500 Index which is down about 10%. We started to warm to the yellow metal late last year and continue to think it can serve as a potential hedge in a well-diversified portfolio for suitable investors.
“From COVID-19, to massive monetary stimulus, to historically lower yields, to potentially negative fed funds rates down the road, there are many reasons to think gold could continue its recent strength,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, gold based for years before breaking out last year. This is a strong chart from a technical perspective and eventual new highs over the coming years could be quite likely.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retest Possible, But Bottom Likely In as Jobless Claims Trend Lower

Initial Weekly Jobless Claims of 3.3 million, 6.9 million, 6.6 million, 5.2 million, 4.4 million, 3.8 million, 3.2 million and 3.0 million the past eight weeks, totaling 36.5 million, is astonishing. The good news is the trend is lower and as we pointed out in mid-April four weeks ago a spike peak in Initial Claims and an immediate precipitous retreat has been an effective indication of a bear market low over the years.
Today’s chart, presented above, is from the FRED database hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis compares the recent history of Jobless claims with the Wilshire 5000. (Gaps in the Wilshire index line are market holidays.) Clearly, the March 23 low and the spike high in Claims at the end of that week correlate quite well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sentiment Unexpectedly Improves

The preliminary read on sentiment from the University of Michigan was a surprising bright spot in Friday's weak economic data as the headline reading improved from 71.8 up to 73.7 versus expectations for a decline to 68.0. Even with this increase, sentiment remains near a 10-year low, so it's not as though investors are actually positive, they're just less negative. While the increase in sentiment was a bit of a surprise, it makes sense. April was a month where the economy was essentially shut down, so the impact of that sudden stop on sentiment was intense. However, now that things have started to thaw a little bit, you can't fault people for becoming more optimistic.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While consumers are feeling a bit better about the way things are, they are still extremely uneasy about the future. The chart below breaks down sentiment towards current conditions and expectations about the future. While the current conditions component showed some improvement, the expectations component saw further declines.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One question in the monthly survey that caused us to do a double-take was the question that asks, "During the last few months, have you heard of any favorable or unfavorable changes in business conditions? And what did you hear?" In this month's survey, the index that tracks instances of unfavorable news mentions hit a record high of 141. This series goes all the way back to 1959, and never before has it been near current levels. The prior high for this index was back in the depths of the financial crisis when the index peaked at 133. There hasn't been much good news lately, but even this reading is extreme.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Investors Remain On Guard

In a post earlier today, we noted that individual investors still remain overwhelmingly bearish despite the equity market's rally off the March lows. Another sentiment indicator released by TD Ameritrade supports this view that investors aren't particularly bullish right now. The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index is a proprietary, behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade designed to indicate the sentiment of individual investors’ portfolios. It measures what investors are actually doing, and how they are actually positioned in the markets.
The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index has been in existence since 2010, and in that entire history there have only been five months where the index was weaker than it is now, and that was from October 2011 through February 2012. That was also a period that marked a major low in the equity market and was followed by a nearly uninterrupted three-year rally in the S&P 500.
While the Investor Movement Index is near record lows right now, it has been weak for some time, and that weakness came even as the S&P 500 was climbing to record highs over the last 12-18 months. In other words, while investors are just about as cautious as they have been at any time in the last ten years, this conservatism is nothing new.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $WMT
  • $BABA
  • $NVDA
  • $HD
  • $NAT
  • $TGT
  • $LOW
  • $SE
  • $BIDU
  • $BJ
  • $M
  • $AAP
  • $IQ
  • $TTWO
  • $MDT
  • $OAS
  • $BBY
  • $MCK
  • $SOGO
  • $TJX
  • $INSE
  • $SOHU
  • $FL
  • $DNR
  • $EXPE
  • $ADI
  • $PANW
  • $CBL
  • $DE
  • $KMDA
  • $SPLK
  • $HRL
  • $INTU
  • $EXP
  • $WB
  • $NIU
  • $HZN
  • $TNK
  • $TRVG
  • $IGT
  • $BILI
  • $OMP
  • $URBN
  • $SNPS
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S OPEN!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 5.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 5.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 5.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 5.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 5.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 5.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 5.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 5.21.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 5.22.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 5.22.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Walmart Inc. $125.94

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, May 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.12 per share on revenue of $129.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.88% with revenue increasing by 4.29%. Short interest has decreased by 30.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $117.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,764 contracts of the $130.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $203.68

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 AM ET on Friday, May 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.59 per share on revenue of $15.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.32% with revenue increasing by 9.68%. Short interest has increased by 5.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.1% above its 200 day moving average of $191.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, May 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,712 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $339.63

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Thursday, May 21, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.68 per share on revenue of $2.99 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.77 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.61 to $1.81 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 95.35% with revenue increasing by 34.68%. The stock has drifted higher by 18.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 50.6% above its 200 day moving average of $225.48. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,739 contracts of the $350.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $239.33

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, May 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.27 per share on revenue of $27.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 3.22%. Short interest has increased by 17.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% above its 200 day moving average of $219.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,370 contracts of the $240.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nordic American Tankers Limited $5.03

Nordic American Tankers Limited (NAT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $81.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 525.00% with revenue increasing by 51.65%. Short interest has increased by 350.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 45.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 43.5% above its 200 day moving average of $3.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,413 contracts of the $5.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $120.94

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, May 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.73 per share on revenue of $18.77 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.74 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.55 to $1.75 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.29% with revenue increasing by 6.48%. Short interest has increased by 49.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.3% above its 200 day moving average of $109.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,695 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $113.78

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, May 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.30 per share on revenue of $18.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.56% with revenue increasing by 2.19%. Short interest has decreased by 7.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.0% above its 200 day moving average of $108.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 8, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,626 contracts of the $120.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sea Limited $61.96

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $920.90 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.22) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.56% with revenue increasing by 161.72%. Short interest has increased by 12.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 53.4% above its 200 day moving average of $40.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,969 contracts of the $64.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Baidu, Inc. $99.86

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Monday, May 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.64 per share on revenue of $3.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.34% with revenue decreasing by 12.91%. Short interest has decreased by 5.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 13.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.5% below its 200 day moving average of $111.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,957 contracts of the $110.00 call expiring on Friday, May 22, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $28.43

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, May 21, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share on revenue of $3.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 30.77% with revenue increasing by 3.40%. Short interest has decreased by 6.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 35.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.7% above its 200 day moving average of $24.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, May 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,866 contracts of the $35.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 21.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning February 24th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning February 24th, 2020.

Coronavirus fears spoiled a solid earnings season and will further dominate markets ahead - (Source)

The coronavirus outbreak ruined for investors what was a solid earnings reporting season and is casting a pall on forecasts for this quarter and the rest of this year. And now with most of the earnings season in the books, look for the latest coronavirus headlines to fill the vacuum and weigh on stocks the rest of the month.
Fourth-quarter profit growth for S&P 500 companies came in at 3.1%, and if the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate was 6.0%, according to Refinitiv. Just about four weeks ago, analysts expected a slight decline.
However, the deluge of solid corporate results was largely overlooked by investors who are focusing on the spillover impact from the coronavirus on U.S. corporations. Stocks post losses this week as a jump in confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths deepened concerns about slowing global economic growth. Major U.S. companies including Apple, Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble have sounded alarms on the disease, warning of a dent in profits down the road.
“The virus is totally underrated,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on Friday.“What I think is a little too premature is they all presume that it is going to be solved within a foreseeable time frame. At what point do we say that many, many companies are going to be hurt by the virus [and] we’re paying too much for stocks.”

‘More cautious than usual’

Wall Street analysts have been quick to slash their earnings expectations for the next quarter in light of the fast-spreading virus. Expectations for earnings growth in the first quarter have been cut in half to just 3.2% from more than 6% at the start of 2020, according to Refinitiv.
Companies themselves are also lowering guidance for earnings growth in the near future. There have been more U.S. companies issuing below-consensus guidance for the next quarter than those with upbeat forecasts, marking the weakest ratio in a February since 2014, according to Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America.
“While guidance is typically weak in the first quarter as corporates set a low bar, it has been more cautious than usual this earnings season, likely due to the coronavirus,” Subramanian said in a note.
Nearly half of the S&P 500 companies have cited coronavirus during their earnings call this season, according to FactSet. These companies’ average revenue exposure to China is 7.2%, compared to 4.8% exposure for the average S&P 500 company.
As of Friday, China’s National Health Commission reported more than 75,000 confirmed cases and over 2,000 deaths on the mainland. South Korea has also reported more than 200 cases. Meanwhile, World health officials said the outbreak in Iran is “very worrisome.”
“Lost in those headlines is corporate America’s impressive performance this earnings season,” John Lynch, LPL Financial’s chief investment strategist, said in a note. “Companies have done an admirable job growing profits considering stiff headwinds.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

Earnings Season Observations

The recent news that technology giant Apple would miss its fourth quarter 2020 revenue targets has understandably increased investor anxiety surrounding the potential economic impact of the coronavirus (now called COVID-19). Lost in those headlines is corporate America’s impressive performance this earnings season.
“Companies have done an admirable job growing profits considering stiff headwinds,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “Despite slowing global economic growth, weakness in capital investment and manufacturing, a strong US dollar, and a huge drop in energy sector profits, S&P 500 companies are impressively grinding out 1-2 percentage points of overall earnings growth.” The fourth quarter earnings growth may cement the third quarter of 2019 as the trough, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Some highlights of this earnings season:
  • Solid revenue upside. A solid 65% of S&P 500 Index companies have beaten revenue estimates, the highest level since second quarter 2018 and well above the long-term average at 57%. S&P 500 companies have produced a larger-than-normal nearly one percentage point positive revenue surprise and are tracking to a 3.5% top-line increase.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
  • Respectable earnings upside despite headwinds. The earnings beat rate at 71% is slightly above the 10-year average (70%). S&P 500 earnings growth has surprised by a solid 4.4% so far despite economic, currency, and commodity headwinds.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
  • Consider the energy drag. Though 1-2% overall earnings growth isn’t much, the gain is approximately 4%, excluding the energy sector.
  • Sector standout. One of the most China-exposed sectors produced one of the biggest upside earnings surprises: Technology. Technology sector earnings growth is tracking to a 5% year-over-year increase, about 9 percentage points above prior estimates.
  • Reassuring outlooks. Estimates for S&P 500 earnings per share in 2020 have only fallen by about 0.9% since December 31, 2019. Though these numbers may come down a bit more in the coming days and the China situation remains fluid, this modest reduction reflects U.S. companies’ resilience overall amid significant supply chain disruptions.

Election Year March: Performance Haunted By Steep 1980 Declines

Boisterous March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2001, DJIA plunged 1469 points (-11.8%) from March 9 to the 22.
Normally a decent performing market month, March is somewhat above average in election years with advances 64.7% of the time with a 1.0% average DJIA gain since 1952. S&P 500 has also advanced 64.7% of the time since 1952, but gains have been slightly better at 1.2%, on average. NASDAQ has not fared well in March in election years since 1972. Due to a 17.1% loss in 1980, March is NASDAQ’s second worst month of the election year. Similarly, March 1980’s steep losses adversely affect Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 indices.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Performance Throughout The Presidencies

As markets were closed to observe Presidents Day yesterday and the 2020 Presidential election continues to ramp up, we thought it would be a good time to check up on stock performance during different administrations. In the table below, we show the performance of the Dow during the administrations of every US president since 1900 in addition to the annualized return. In the time since President Trump was sworn into office, the Dow has risen 46.9%. On an annualized basis, the 13.3% return places the current administration in 3rd place for the strongest performance. Only the Clinton administration in the 1990s and Coolidge administration in the 1920s have observed stronger annualized gains. The one caveat of course is that President Trump's term (or terms) has yet to end. Comparing Democratic and Republican administrations since 1900, Democratic presidencies have tended to average stronger returns than their Republican peers, so the stock market's returns under President Trump have deviated somewhat from the norm.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While it is impossible to say what a candidate's election will mean for the market, at the moment betting markets favor the incumbent to win the presidency while Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg go back and forth in taking the number 2 spot, hovering around 15%-16%. Come Super Tuesday (March 3rd) when we could finally see more clarity on the Democratic side, the back and forth between Bloomberg and Sanders might become more one-sided.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Yet Another Corona Friday

The major indices decided it was five o'clock somewhere right off the bat today as they experience yet another "Corona Friday". More concerns around the coronavirus have sent stocks lower with the S&P 500 down around 1.1% as of this writing and the Nasdaq down nearly 2% today. Declines on a Friday have become par for the course in 2020. Fridays have been the weakest day of the week so far in 2020; the only one to average a decline. On average, the S&P 500 has fallen 0.52% on Fridays while the next worst day has been Monday which has averaged a gain of 0.19%. Fridays have also been the day that the S&P 500 has closed higher the least. Only 28.6% of Fridays this year have seen the S&P 500 finish in the green. That compares to a positive close more than three-quarters of the time on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays. While it has averaged a gain of 0.24%, Tuesdays have also experienced a positive close less than half of the time. Try Bespoke's premium research package for free for two weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

New All-Time Highs for S&P 500 and NASDAQ – Well Above Average Gains in Election Year

As of today’s close, DJIA is up 2.84%, S&P 500 +4.81% and NASDAQ is up a whopping 9.41% year-to-date. All three indexes are well above their respective historical averages for this time of an election year. NASDAQ has in fact already exceeded its average full election year performance going back to 1972. Bullish sentiment and momentum appear to be firmly in place and historical election year patterns suggests strength could easily continue for DJIA and S&P 500 into May. NASDAQ’s surge higher could be vulnerable to a retreat sooner, in March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A Dow Without Boeing (BA)

For more than a year now, Boeing (BA) has been plagued by the 737 MAX crisis which has weighed on shares of the plane manufacturer with it now currently down nearly 20% from when the initial groundings took place on March 10th of last year. Despite this, while underperforming the broader market due to the 737 issues, the stock is actually still up just over 5% since the start of 2019.
Even though BA has lagged, it is still the highest-priced of the 30 stocks in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average. Currently trading around $338.50, the only stocks in the index holding a candle to BA are Apple (AAPL) and UnitedHealth (UNH), which also trade north of $300 per share. That means these stocks have the highest weighting in the index and therefore have a much larger impact than other stocks on the Dow's performance.
With BA's issues, a number of people have pondered the what-ifs for the Dow had the company not had the issues with the 737. Would we have already broken out the Dow 30K hats were it not for BA? In the chart below, we show the actual performance of the DJIA and have overlaid the performance of an 'alternate Dow' showing its performance if BA had not been in the index since the start of 2019. We used the start of 2019 instead of the actual date of the groundings as it is a little less arbitrary. By our calculations, while we would be a bit closer, even if BA wasn't in the index since the start of 2019, we wouldn't quite be at Dow 30K yet. As shown, our alternate Dow would be almost 1% or 266 points higher if Boeing was not included in the index since the start of 2019.
While BA has been a drag on the DJIA since last March, it also provided a big boost to the index in early 2018 before the 737 issues hit the stock. In fact, at the start of March 2017, BA was up over 36% YTD and the spread between the Dow's performance with and without BA was around 700 points in the other direction as it is now!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another example of this dynamic in which high priced stocks have a greater impact on the index was observed on Tuesday when Apple's (AAPL) stock fell after the company warned that Q1 revenues would be shy of prior guidance due to the coronavirus. The warnings sent shares down over 3% at its intraday lows, but the stock only finished down 1.83%. While there were equivalent or larger declines like Dow (DOW) or Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) in Tuesday's session, AAPL's declines by far weighed on the index more than any other stock. Of the Dow's 165.89 point decline, AAPL contributed 40.35 points. Fortunately, UNH helped to mitigate some of those losses as it had a positive impact on the index of +22.79 points.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $BYND
  • $SQ
  • $HD
  • $SPCE
  • $CRM
  • $BIDU
  • $M
  • $CRON
  • $CHK
  • $BBY
  • $TTD
  • $AMRN
  • $SHAK
  • $KOS
  • $AWI
  • $SDC
  • $LOW
  • $ILPT
  • $CLVS
  • $TNDM
  • $IQ
  • $PANW
  • $CRI
  • $SPNS
  • $TJX
  • $CTB
  • $ETSY
  • $TREE
  • $KEYS
  • $INTU
  • $GWPH
  • $W
  • $TDOC
  • $WEN
  • $CROX
  • $DIN
  • $DNR
  • $LL
  • $DORM
  • $GH
  • $OXY
  • $MGI
  • $AMT
  • $JCP
  • $CBRL
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2020!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 2.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 2.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)

Tuesday 2.25.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 2.25.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Wednesday 2.26.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 2.26.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Thursday 2.27.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Thursday 2.27.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Friday 2.28.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 2.28.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Beyond Meat, Inc. $117.45

Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, February 27, 2020. The consenus estimate is for breakeven results on revenue of $79.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 58.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.1% below its 200 day moving average of $122.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 24.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Square, Inc. $83.49

Square, Inc. (SQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, February 26, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.20 per share on revenue of $1.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.24 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.19 to $0.21 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.65% with revenue increasing by 26.54%. Short interest has decreased by 4.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 34.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.8% above its 200 day moving average of $67.46. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,991 contracts of the $87.00 call expiring on Friday, February 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $245.34

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.10 per share on revenue of $25.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.15 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.67% with revenue decreasing by 2.76%. Short interest has decreased by 17.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.1% above its 200 day moving average of $218.79. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,015 contracts of the $245.00 call expiring on Friday, February 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. $33.87

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat. The stock has drifted higher by 237.0% from its open following the earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Salesforce $189.50

Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.55 per share on revenue of $4.75 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.54 to $0.55 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 20.29% with revenue increasing by 31.83%. Short interest has decreased by 5.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 18.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.5% above its 200 day moving average of $158.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,926 contracts of the $210.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Baidu, Inc. $129.80

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, February 27, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.72 per share on revenue of $3.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.27 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 39.49% with revenue increasing by 0.13%. Short interest has decreased by 30.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% above its 200 day moving average of $116.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,013 contracts of the $125.00 put expiring on Friday, March 27, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Macy's, Inc. $16.23

Macy's, Inc. (M) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $8.32 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.98 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 17% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.57% with revenue decreasing by 1.60%. Short interest has increased by 0.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.6% below its 200 day moving average of $17.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,128 contracts of the $16.00 put expiring on Friday, February 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Cronos Group Inc. $7.15

Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, February 27, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $12.40 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.00% with revenue increasing by 192.38%. Short interest has increased by 28.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 11.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.9% below its 200 day moving average of $10.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,164 contracts of the $8.00 call expiring on Friday, February 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Chesapeake Energy Corp. $0.45

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, February 26, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $1.21 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.07) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 128.57% with revenue decreasing by 30.10%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 66.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 67.6% below its 200 day moving average of $1.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, February 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,872 contracts of the $1.50 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Best Buy Co., Inc. $90.26

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, February 27, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.76 per share on revenue of $15.09 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.65 to $2.75 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.47% with revenue increasing by 1.95%. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.3% above its 200 day moving average of $74.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

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